Event Generation and Statistical Sampling for Physics with Deep Generative Models and a Density Information Buffer

We present a study for the generation of events from a physical process with deep generative models. The simulation of physical processes requires not only the production of physical events, but also to ensure these events occur with the correct frequencies. We investigate the feasibility of learning the event generation and the frequency of occurrence with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to produce events like Monte Carlo generators. We study three processes: a simple two-body decay, the processes $e^+e^-\to Z \to l^+l^-$ and $p p \to t\bar{t}$ including the decay of the top quarks and a simulation of the detector response. We find that the tested GAN architectures and the standard VAE are not able to learn the distributions precisely. By buffering density information of encoded Monte Carlo events given the encoder of a VAE we are able to construct a prior for the sampling of new events from the decoder that yields distributions that are in very good agreement with real Monte Carlo events and are generated several orders of magnitude faster. Applications of this work include generic density estimation and sampling, targeted event generation via a principal component analysis of encoded ground truth data, anomaly detection and more efficient importance sampling, e.g. for the phase space integration of matrix elements in quantum field theories.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figure

Predicting atmospheric optical properties for radiative transfer computations using neural networks

The radiative transfer equations are well-known, but radiation parametrizations in atmospheric models are computationally expensive. A promising tool for accelerating parametrizations is the use of machine learning techniques. In this study, we develop a machine learning-based parametrization for the gaseous optical properties by training neural networks to emulate a modern radiation parameterization (RRTMGP). To minimize computational costs, we reduce the range of atmospheric conditions for which the neural networks are applicable and use machine-specific optimised BLAS functions to accelerate matrix computations. To generate training data, we use a set of randomly perturbed atmospheric profiles and calculate optical properties using RRTMGP. Predicted optical properties are highly accurate and the resulting radiative fluxes have average errors within \SI{0.5}{\flux} compared to RRTMGP. Our neural network-based gas optics parametrization is up to 4 times faster than RRTMGP, depending on the size of the neural networks. We further test the trade-off between speed and accuracy by training neural networks for the narrow range of atmospheric conditions of a single large-eddy simulation, so smaller and therefore faster networks can achieve a desired accuracy. We conclude that our machine learning-based parametrization can speed-up radiative transfer computations whilst retaining high accuracy.Comment: 13 pages,5 figures, submitted to Philosophical Transactions

Utility analysis of disability caused by amblyopia and/or strabismus in a population-based, historic cohort

Background: Amblyopia (prevalence 3.4%) is in principle treatable, but approximately one quarter of children do not reach reading acuity in the amblyopic eye. Adults with persistent amblyopia and/or strabismus experience a decrease in quality of life. This was now quantified by patient-perceived utility values. Methods: Subjects were born 1962-1972 and had been treated by occlusion therapy for amblyopia by one orthoptist 30-35 years ago. All children in Waterland with amblyopia and/or strabismus had been referred to this orthoptist. Utilities were derived by methods of time trade-off, TTO (lifetime traded against perfect vision) and standard gamble, SG (death risk accepted for perfect vision). Most troubling eye disorder (low acuity of the amblyopic eye, lacking stereopsis or strabismus) was chosen and ranked among nine chronic disorders according to the subject's perceived severity. Results: From 201 patients that could be contacted 35 years after occlusion therapy - out of 471 who had been occluded - 135 were included: 17 could not be reached, 34 refused, and 15 had other reasons to not participate. Mean age was 40.86 years; 53% were male. Seventy percent were willing to trade lifetime according to the TTO method; its mean (log) utility was 0.963, i.e., a decrease in quality of life of 3.7%. Thirty-seven percent accepted death risk according to the SG method; its mean utility was 0.9996. TTO outcomes correlated with current near and distance visual acuity. Low acuity of the amblyopic eye, chosen as most troubling eye disorder, ranked slightly less severe than tooth decay. Conclusion: Amblyopia and/or strabismus patients had a slightly decreased utility. The decrease is small but still important in the cost-effectiveness of vision screening because these conditions occur very frequently

Sensitizing thermochemotherapy with a PARP1-inhibitor

Cis-diamminedichloroplatinum(II) (cisplatin, cDDP) is an effective chemotherapeutic agent that induces DNA double strand breaks (DSBs), primarily in replicating cells. Generally, such DSBs can be repaired by the classical or backup non-homologous end joining (c-NHEJ/b-NHEJ) or homologous recombination (HR). Therefore, inhibiting these pathways in cancer cells should enhance the efficiency of cDDP treatments. Indeed, inhibition of HR by hyperthermia (HT) sensitizes cancer cells to cDDP and in the Netherlands this combination is a standard treatment option for recurrent cervical cancer after previous radiotherapy. Additionally, cDDP has been demonstrated to disrupt c-NHEJ, which likely further increases the treatment efficacy. However, if one of these pathways is blocked, DSB repair functions can be sustained by the Poly-(ADP-ribose)-polymerase1 (PARP1)-dependent b-NHEJ. Therefore, disabling b-NHEJ should, in principle, further inhibit the repair of cDDP-induced DNA lesions and enhance the toxicity of thermochemotherapy. To explore this hypothesis, we treated a panel of cancer cell lines with HT, cDDP and a PARP1-i and measured various end-point relevant in cancer treatment. Our results demonstrate that PARP1-i does not considerably increase the efficacy of HT combined with standard, commonly used cDDP concentrations. However, in the presence of a PARP1-i, ten-fold lower concentration of cDDP can be used to induce similar cytotoxic effects. PARP1 inhibition may thus permit a substantial lowering of cDDP concentrations without diminishing treatment efficacy, potentially reducing systemic side effects

Enhancing synthetic lethality of PARP-inhibitor and cisplatin in BRCA-proficient tumour cells with hyperthermia

Background: Poly-(ADP-ribose)-polymerase1 (PARP1) is involved in repair of DNA single strand breaks. PARP1-inhibitors (PARP1-i) cause an accumulation of DNA double strand breaks, which are generally repaired by homologous recombination (HR). Therefore, cancer cells harboring HR deficiencies are exceptionally sensitive to PARP1-i. For patients with HR-proficient tumors, HR can be temporarily inhibited by hyperthermia, thereby inducing synthetic lethal conditions in every tumor type. Since cisplatin is successfully used combined with hyperthermia (thermochemotherapy), we investigated the effectiveness of combining PARP1-i with thermochemotherapy. Results: The in vitro data demonstrate a decreased in cell survival after addition of PARP1-i to thermochemotherapy, which can be explained by increased DNA damage induction and less DSB repair. These in vitro findings are in line with in vivo model, in which a decreased tumor growth is observed upon addition of PARP1-i. Materials and Methods: Survival of three HR-proficient cell lines after cisplatin, hyperthermia and/or PARP1-i was studied. Cell cycle analyses, quantification of γ-H2AX foci and apoptotic assays were performed to understand these survival data. The effects of treatments were further evaluated by monitoring tumor responses in an in vivo rat model. Conclusions: Our results in HR-proficient cell lines suggest that PARP1-i combined with thermochemotherapy can be a promising clinical approach for all tumors independent of HR status

Report on the Workshop on Sustainable Software Sustainability 2019 (WOSSS19)

This report is based on the discussions and presentations that took place at the Workshop on Sustainable Software Sustainability (www.software.ac.uk/wosss19) in April 2019 (WOSSS19). It captures the state of the art for a range of Software Sustainability themes that were brought up by the organisers and attendees of the workshop

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362